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Military

Russian morning attack on Dnipro kills 4, injures 27 – UPDATED. A series of explosions in Dnipro on 3 July left three dead and 18 injured, including a 14-year-old girl, as Russian forces targeted the city with missiles and drones.

Russian air strike on Kharkiv injures 14, including infant. Russians hit Kharkiv with three guided bombs from Russia’s Belgorod Oblast.

Battle for Chasiv Yar: analysts report Russian progress, Ukrainian army disputes. The Ukrainian analytical project Deep State claims that Ukrainian forces have retreated from one district of Chasiv Yar.

ISW: Russia may intend to leverage ongoing Toretsk push for advances in Chasiv Yar or Avdiivka areas. Ukrainian military sources report increased Russian assaults on multiple fronts in eastern Ukraine, with a focus on the Toretsk area that could threaten nearby strategic locations.

Naval drones attack Russia’s largest southern port Novorossiysk overnight. Novorossiysk’s mayor claims Ukrainian naval drones attacked Novorossiysk, a key Black Sea port and naval base.

As of 03 Jul 2024, the approximate losses of weapons and military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces from the beginning of the invasion to the present day:

• • • Personnel: 546270 (+1180)
    • Tanks: 8123 (+16)
    • APV: 15583 (+17)
    • Artillery systems: 14712 (+57)
    • MLRS: 1115 (+1)
    • Anti-aircraft systems: 876 (+2)
    • Aircraft: 360
    • Helicopters: 326
    • UAV: 11668 (+27)
    • Cruise missiles : 2336 (+1)
    • Warships/boats: 28
    • Submarines: 1
    • Vehicles and fuel tanks: 19850 (+63)

Intelligence and technology

Ukraine’s use of American arms still restricted, says Pentagon. They are not for deep strikes into Russia.

US State Department: If Russia expands front, Ukraine to be permitted to strike at greater distances. US lawmakers are calling for the removal of all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range American missiles against Russian military targets, citing the need for a more robust defense strategy.

International

US allocates $ 2.2 billion for Patriot missiles to Ukraine, adds $ 150 million in military aid. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hinted at this during a meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov at the Pentagon on 2 July.

Erdogan proposes Türkiye as mediator for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in talks with Putin. Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed openness to peace talks, but only with international mediators.

Show us your war-ending plan, Zelenskyy tells Trump. Trump has previously claimed he could stop the war with Russia within 24 hours.

Reuters: NATO allies commit to € 40 billion support for Ukraine in 2025. The decision is expected to receive formal approval at the NATO summit in Washington.

New Dutch Prime Minister assures Zelenskyy of further support for Ukraine. Despite recent far-right electoral gains, the Netherlands’ new government under Prime Minister Dick Schooff has pledged ongoing aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine rejects Orban’s ceasefire proposal during Kyiv talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s suggestion for a ceasefire, maintaining Kyiv’s stance against temporary halts in hostilities.

Trump considers NATO deal with Putin, potentially to block Ukraine’s NATO accession. A potential second Trump term could see a dramatic reduction in America’s role in NATO, with European allies expected to shoulder more of the burden.

Orbán meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv while Hungarian FM calls Lavrov. The Russian Foreign Ministry reported that Budapest initiated the call, where both sides praised their “political dialogue.”

Political and legal developments

Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office: Ukraine not ready to compromise with Russia. As the NATO summit approaches, Ukraine’s leadership reaffirms its stance against territorial concessions while remaining open to discussions on achieving a “just peace.”

Trap Aggressor: Russian billionaire Abramovich not under US sanctions yet, while his business fuels Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite Roman Abramovich’s metallurgical and mining company supplying materials to the Russian state-run military-industrial complex for over a decade, the United States has yet to impose sanctions on the billionaire, while his children live in the UK and the US without sanctions, according to Trap Aggressor’s investigation.

New developments

Ukraine in talks to transit Azeri gas to EU as Russian alternative. Russian gas transit agreement set to expire at the end of 2024 and unlikely to be renewed.

Read our earlier daily review here.