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House Speaker Mike Johnson is in a stronger-than-expected spot to keep his job in 2025, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Johnson is less than three months removed from relying on Democratic votes to save his gavel.

• GOP lawmakers pointed to his strong relationship with former President Trump as an asset that has only become more valuable this summer.
• “Trump is really really behind him,” one House Republican told Axios.
• Not everyone is sold: Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) still openly advocate for his ouster. But they’re distinctly in the minority.

Between the lines: This is not the story we expected back in May.

• Johnson was presiding over a threadbare caucus in which a motion against his job was a daily threat.
• “What organization in history has 200 and something direct reports, any one of which could fire you if they don’t agree with the decision you made?” said Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.).

Johnson had to watch on the House floor in May as 11 of his GOP members voted to advance an ouster attempt, up from the nine that successfully removed his predecessor Kevin McCarthy.

• But 163 Democrats voted to block the Johnson ouster attempt, saving his job after he pushed through aid for Ukraine.

Zoom in: Now the House GOP is feeling bullish about November, with good vibes about their neophyte speaker.

• “[H]e’s giving fewer and fewer reasons to those who want to get rid of him, right? What are you going to do?” one GOP lawmaker told Axios.
• “It’s a forgotten memory,” another House Republican said of the Ukraine aid vote that triggered a motion to vacate by Greene.

Reality check: This all goes out the window if Trump loses in November. So too if the GOP fails to take the House, or ends up with another razor-thin edge.

• Republicans were similarly bullish about a “red wave” in 2022.
• That didn’t pan out, and their resulting tiny majority in January 2023 set the stage for a historic speaker ouster and nearly two years of paralysis.

The bottom line: Johnson’s biggest remaining test — aside from November’s results — is steering the caucus through September’s government funding deadlines.

• “I think the potential for other candidates to emerge is one major mistake away,” another House Republican told Axios.

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