10-year Treasury yield hits fresh November 2022 high after jobs report

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10-year Treasury yield hits fresh November 2022 high after jobs report

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The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit a multi-month high on Friday as investors digested key labor market data that showed the economy added fewer-than-expected jobs in July.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury toughed a high of 4.206%, the highest level since Nov. 8, 2022, before turning flat. The 2-year Treasury was up by 2 basis points at 4.918%.

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%.

Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 187,000 for the month, slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 200,000. Though the headline number was a miss, it actually represented a modest gain from the downwardly revised 185,000 in for June.

Average hourly earnings, a highly scrutinized figure amid the Fed’s inflation fight, rose 0.4% for the month, good for a 4.4% annual pace. Both numbers were higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 4.2%.

“July payrolls missed against consensus for the second straight month after beating consensus 15 months in a row,” wrote Thomas Simons of Jefferies. “The wage data is stronger than the payroll data, suggesting that demand for labor is still robust, and that the slowing pace of hiring is more due to a lack of supply of labor.”

“This, combined with the firmer household survey data, should keep the Fed on their toes for another rate hike as soon as next month, but the CPI data next week will have a big influence in that decision as well,” he said.

Following the Fed’s last meeting in July, chairman Jerome Powell suggested that a broad range of options are still on the table regarding interest rates, including further hikes, but also a pause of the central bank’s rate-hiking campaign. Powell indicated that economic data will play a key role in such decisions.

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